Thursday’s contest between the No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1) and No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats (7-0) going head-to-head at Carmichael Arena has a projected final score of 65-61 (according to our computer prediction) in favor of North Carolina, who is listed as a small favorite by our model. The game will tip off at 5:00 PM ET on December 5.

Based on our computer prediction, Kentucky projects to cover the 8.5-point spread in its matchup against North Carolina. The over/under has been set at 130.5, and the two teams are projected to come in below that total.

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North Carolina vs. Kentucky Game Info & Odds

• Date: Thursday, December 5, 2024
• Time: 5:00 PM ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Venue: Carmichael Arena
• Line: North Carolina -8.5
• Point total: 130.5
• Moneyline (to win): North Carolina -450, Kentucky +333

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North Carolina vs. Kentucky Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  North Carolina 65, Kentucky 61

Spread & Total Prediction for North Carolina vs. Kentucky

• Pick ATS: Kentucky (+8.5)
• Pick OU: Under (130.5)

North Carolina has compiled a 4-1-0 record against the spread this season, while Kentucky is 3-1-0. The Tar Heels are 0-5-0 and the Wildcats are 1-3-0 in terms of going over the point total. The teams average 151.6 points per game, 21.1 more points than this matchup’s total.

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North Carolina Performance Insights

• The Tar Heels outscore opponents by 24.9 points per game (scoring 73.5 points per game to rank 85th in college basketball while giving up 48.6 per outing to rank third in college basketball) and have a +199 scoring differential overall.
• North Carolina averages 37.8 rebounds per game (44th in college basketball) while conceding 31.1 per contest to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 6.7 boards per game.
• North Carolina hits 8.4 three-pointers per game (35th in college basketball) at a 32.8% rate (121st in college basketball), compared to the 4.5 per game its opponents make at a 23.8% rate.
• The Tar Heels average 91.2 points per 100 possessions on offense (76th in college basketball), and give up 60.3 points per 100 possessions (eighth in college basketball).
• North Carolina has committed 11.5 turnovers per game (16th in college basketball play), seven fewer than the 18.5 it forces on average (88th in college basketball).

Kentucky Performance Insights

• The Wildcats are outscoring opponents by 25.5 points per game, with a +179 scoring differential overall. They put up 78.1 points per game (49th in college basketball) and allow 52.6 per outing (15th in college basketball).
• The 40.9 rebounds per game Kentucky accumulates rank 15th in the country, 12.5 more than the 28.4 its opponents collect.
• Kentucky makes 7 three-pointers per game (110th in college basketball), 2.6 more than its opponents. It shoots 28.2% from beyond the arc (250th in college basketball), and its opponents are shooting 23.8%.
• Kentucky has committed 1.5 fewer turnovers than its opponents, averaging 12.1 (27th in college basketball) while forcing 13.6 (311th in college basketball).

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